Muscle building: how much is realistic?

Muscle building is not something you finish in ten weeks. Social media promises seven kilograms of pure muscle in a couple of months, but in real life that simply isn’t how it works. Let’s look at what practice and physiology tell us.

Why muscle building takes years

Human physiology sets limits. For a natural lifter, a realistic gain over an entire career is in the range of 20–25 kg of pure muscle. That is Lyle McDonald’s position, and practice mostly bears it out.

Growth is fastest in the first years. After that, the progress curve starts to flatten. After four or five years of training, the annual gain drops to roughly a third of what it was at the start.

One thing is important to remember: a gain in body weight is not the same as a gain in muscle mass. If the scale goes up by five kilos, that doesn’t automatically mean five kilos of new muscle. Usually part of it is fat and water. Dr. Gilbert Forbes’s research shows that for a person with a lower body fat percentage, 60–70% of the weight gained goes to muscle, while for a fatter lifter it’s the opposite — most of it goes to fat.

Muscle building year by year

Take one Estonian powerlifter, Rauno Kõlu (height 171 cm). His progress, starting at age 14, looked like this:

• At 14: 50.0 kg, bench pressed 55 kg
• At 15: 64.2 kg, bench pressed 85 kg
• At 16: 70.5 kg, bench pressed 110 kg
• At 17: 79.2 kg, bench pressed 130 kg
• At 18: 84.1 kg, bench pressed 140 kg

In the first four years he gained 34.1 kg of body weight — on average 8.5 kg a year. If we speculate that two thirds of that was pure muscle, that comes to about 23 kg of muscle mass in four years. Today Rauno is 23 years old and weighs 88 kg. Since the age of 18 he has added just a couple of kilos.

Lyle McDonald offers the classic numbers:

• Year 1: 9–12 kg of muscle per year (up to 1 kg per month)
• Year 2: 4.5–6.5 kg per year (about 500 g per month)
• Year 3: 2.5–3 kg per year (about 225 g per month)
• Year 4: 1–2 kg per year

Jason Ferrugia’s article arrives at similar numbers: 9–13.5 kg in the first year (if you start at 15–22 years old), 4.5–6.5 kg in the second year, and after that the pace clearly falls. The same order of magnitude is confirmed by Men’s Health’s overview.

The simple truth: if someone is advertising a program that promises a seven-year-old trainee 4–5 kg of pure muscle in three months, it simply doesn’t apply to a natural lifter.

Muscle building: practical tips

So what do you do with this knowledge? First, set your expectations. As a beginner you may see a gain of 8–12 kg in the first year, if your training program is consistent and your diet covers your needs. As an advanced lifter, every 2–3 kg a year is already a very good result.

Second, don’t chase numbers on the scale alone — track your strength gains on the bar. If your bench press, squats and deadlifts go up significantly over the year, your muscle is probably growing too, even if slowly. The opposite combination, where body weight goes up but the bar stays put, is worth avoiding.

Third, age plays a role. A young man who starts at 17 has an advantage from his hormonal environment that you can no longer get at 35. That doesn’t mean there’s no point in starting as an adult — the pace is just calmer, and the numbers from the earlier tables need to be adjusted to more modest levels.

You need to eat enough: typically 1.6–2.2 g of protein per kilogram of body weight and energy in a slight surplus. Too large a surplus goes mainly to fat — especially if your body fat level is already higher. Women are a topic of their own: because of the hormonal background, muscle mass gain is usually about half the men’s pace.

Frequently asked questions

Can you gain 10 kg of muscle naturally in ten weeks?

No. A pace like that requires either a complete beginner whose scale weight includes a lot of water and fat, or added substances. For a natural lifter, that promise doesn’t hold.

Why does progress slow down over the years?

The closer you get to your genetic ceiling, the harder it is to add new muscle. In the first year you use up a large share of your potential; after that you have to fight for every kilo.

Do the numbers in the tables also apply to beginners over 30?

Only partly. If you first walk into a gym at 25–30 or later, your first-year gain is usually near the lower edge of the table or slightly below it. The principles — consistency, progressive training load, enough protein — are exactly the same, though.

Author: Janar Rückenbrg

Come and train! ArtGym